$60 to $180per HVAC lead through Google Local Services in most US metros, with the same lead sold to three or four other contractors before you call

The best HVAC lead I ever pulled cost me nothing. It came off a mechanical permit filed in Austin for a heat-pump swap, four days before the homeowner had listed the job anywhere else. The alternative is bidding forty to ninety dollars a click on "AC repair near me" and hoping the caller is not a tire kicker. One of those is a strategy. The other is a tax.

Which signals actually predict a job?

Signals for HVAC come in two flavors. The first is homeowner-side: something in the physical system or the paperwork is aging out. The second is business-side: property managers, small commercial landlords, and multi-site operators have their own tells.

  • Signal
    SEER rating of installed unit is 13 or lower
    What it tells you
    Unit is likely 10+ years old and burning 20-30% more energy than a modern equivalent
    Where to find it
    ENERGY STAR labeling records; visible on unit nameplate during inspection
  • Signal
    Building permit filed for kitchen or addition
    What it tells you
    Ductwork or capacity change likely; owner is already spending
    Where to find it
    Municipal permit portals (Accela, OpenGov, Socrata datasets)
  • Signal
    3-day heat index above 95F in ZIP
    What it tells you
    Cooling systems fail under load; call volume spikes 48-72 hours in
    Where to find it
    National Weather Service alerts
  • Signal
    3-day mean temp below 20F
    What it tells you
    Heating systems fail; furnace and heat pump calls follow
    Where to find it
    NOAA daily summaries
  • Signal
    Google Business Profile has fewer than 20 reviews or under 4.2 stars
    What it tells you
    Local competitor is beatable in search; your offer stands out
    Where to find it
    Google Maps API / manual review
  • Signal
    Website missing NATE or EPA 608 certification mentions
    What it tells you
    Owner probably has certs but does not advertise them; you can
    Where to find it
    public web research or manual review of site
  • Signal
    Property manager site lists 3+ multifamily properties in same metro
    What it tells you
    Portfolio-level maintenance contract opportunity, not one-off
    Where to find it
    Public property records; company site
  • Signal
    R-22 refrigerant referenced anywhere on invoices or site
    What it tells you
    System predates 2010 phaseout; parts are scarce and expensive
    Where to find it
    Site copy, customer paperwork
HVAC buying signals mapped to the source you can pull them from.

ENERGY STAR SEER guidance ENERGY STAR central AC efficiency ratings.

NOAA National Weather Service Weather data for heat and cold snap signals.

Why does HVAC have two selling seasons?

HVAC is one of the few businesses where the calendar tells you exactly what to sell. Spring is AC preseason. Fall is heating preseason. The mistake is running the same email in both.

Two-axis matrix

HVAC signals by season

Header

Spring (Feb-May)

AC preseason

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Peak cooling load

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Heating preseason

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Peak heating load

SEER 13 or lower

Kitchen/addition permit

Weather event

Weak Google Business Profile

R-22 references

Left column: signal type. Top row: season the signal is most actionable.

Spring: pre-cooling tune-ups and replacement quotes

February through May, the pitch is "get ahead of summer." A tune-up now costs a fraction of an emergency call in July. Homes with SEER 13 or lower units are candidates for full replacement, and the federal 25C tax credit (up to 2,000 dollars for qualifying heat pumps) is a real reason to buy now, not later.

IRS 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit IRS 25C credit details.

Fall: heating checks and heat pump swaps

September through November, the pitch flips. Furnace safety inspections, heat pump upgrades before the cold hits, and any homeowner who filed a permit for insulation, roofing, or an addition is a strong candidate for a system rethink.

A real cold email, rooted in a permit signal

Here is a template that maps to the permit signal, structured so the operator can plug in their crew size and city. The signal is a filed kitchen remodel permit. The angle is that any real kitchen remodel touches the return duct, and doing HVAC work while the walls are already open costs a third of what it costs afterward.

Subject: {street name} kitchen permit + your HVAC while the walls are open Hi {first name}, Saw the kitchen remodel permit filed at {street address} last week. Congrats on getting started. Quick note from someone who has watched a lot of these: if the return duct or any refrigerant line runs through the kitchen wall, doing the HVAC work now costs roughly a third of what it costs after the drywall goes back up. And if your current condenser is a SEER 13 or lower (we could check the nameplate in 5 minutes), you would also qualify for up to $2,000 in the federal 25C credit on a heat pump swap this year. Worth a 15 minute walk-through this week? Happy to send a couple of options with photos. {Signature}

Signal: municipal permit portal. Angle: cost-of-access while walls are open.

Why this works

The email names a specific address, references a public record the homeowner already knows about, and gives a real cost logic that a homeowner cannot easily dismiss as marketing. The offer is a walk-through, not a hard quote. The mention of the 25C credit is verifiable.

How do you build the target list?

  1. Pull municipal permit filings from your metro. Most large US cities publish these via Socrata or OpenGov. Filter for HVAC, remodel, addition, and kitchen keywords.
  2. Layer a residential public map data pull for homes and small multifamily buildings in the ZIPs you already service. Milo does this natively via its map-based discovery.
  3. For each address, enrich with owner contact via the county assessor if available, or capture the property manager if it is a multifamily.
  4. Score each row: 3 points for a permit filed in the last 60 days, 2 for a weather event forecast in the next 10 days, 1 for a weak GBP presence, 1 for R-22 references.
  5. Only send to rows scoring 3 or higher. The rest are lower-intent and burn your sender reputation.

The one thing to remember

HVAC lead flow that beats paid search is anchored in public timing signals: a filed permit, an aging SEER unit, a forecast heat or cold snap. The calendar decides the offer. Spring sells tune-ups and replacements ahead of summer. Fall sells heating checks and heat-pump swaps ahead of winter. Same signal, different pitch, twice a year.

What should you avoid?

  • Buying a "homeowners in {city}" list. It is stale, it is often illegally scraped, and CAN-SPAM does not save you from state statutes.
  • Generic subject lines like "HVAC service in your area." They pattern-match to spam filters trained on aggregator email.
  • Running the same template into spring and fall. The offer must shift with the season.
  • Sending on Sundays. HVAC recipients open on weekday mornings; weekend sends drop reply rates and raise complaint rates.

FAQ

Is cold emailing homeowners legal in the US?

CAN-SPAM permits commercial email to any address as long as the message identifies itself, uses a real physical postal address, and offers an unsubscribe. Some states (notably California) have layered rules; consult counsel if you are sending at scale.

How many emails per day are safe from a new HVAC domain?

Ramp slowly. 20 to 40 per day for the first two weeks on a warmed inbox, doubling weekly as long as complaint rate stays under 0.10 percent. Milo's built-in warm-up handles the ramp for you.

What signal is highest intent?

A permit filed for a kitchen or addition in the last 60 days. The homeowner is already in a spending posture and the physical work often overlaps HVAC.

Should I email commercial property managers or residential homeowners first?

Property managers if you want fewer, larger contracts. Homeowners if you want higher unit-count volume. Both work; pick one for your first 90 days and stay disciplined.

How do I know a lead is real before I drive out?

Book a 15 minute video walk-through first. Ask them to show the outdoor condenser. The nameplate tells you SEER, refrigerant, and age. A prospect who will not do a video call is often not a serious lead.